Bucks County Home Sale Facts: First 10 Months of 2011

Home sales and prices in Bucks County have declined during the first 10 months of 2011 although October, 2011 saw a significant increase in the number of sales compared to October, 2010.  Figures for 2010 are distorted by the federal New Homeowners Tax Credit which resulted in buyers purchasing homes in the first half of 2010 to receive the tax credit and decreased sales in the second half of 2010.  We are now seeing home sales figures without the effect of federal stimulus.

Year-to-Date Market Snapshot: 1/01/2010-10/31/2010 vs.1/01/2011-10/31/2011

                             Homes Settled.........................Down 5.4%

                             Average Sold Price..................Down 5.3%

                             Average Days on Market........Up 19%


Source:  Coldwell Baker Hearthside Realtors Market Research from Trend MLS.

How Have Home Sales in Upper Makefield Differed by Price Range?

It has been a challenging year for home sales in Upper Makefield.  Luxury priced homes priced over $1 million were particularly affected. Luxury priced homes stayed on the market longer and sold at deeper discounts than homes in other price ranges. 

Homes in Washington Crossing with prices from $400,000 to $600,000 fared much better.  If they were in good condition, had been updated and priced correctly, they sold reasonably quickly and for prices closer to the listing price than homes in other price ranges.

   

Price Range	# Listed	# Sold	% Sold/Listed	Average List Price*	Average Sold Price	% Sold Price/List Price	Average # Days on Market**
$10,000-$400,000	18	16	88.9%	$380,012	$331,812	87.3%	147
$401,000-$600,000	63	32	50.8%	$549,992	$498,290	90.6%	108
$601,000-$800,000	19	8	42.1%	$761,500	$688,462	90.4%	163
$801,000-$1,000,000	24	14	58.3%	$1,006,985	$893,035	88.7%	176
$1,001,000+	51	16	31.4%	$1,873,682	$1,447,120	77.2%	266
Source: MLS TRenD
*  Average List Price is the price when the home was first put on the market under the listing agreement that was in effect at time of sale.  Often the list price is reduced during the contract period. If the list price were reduced, it would not be reflected in this number.  If the home were previously listed with a different agent, the listing price with the former agent would not be provided.
** # Days on the Market indicates the average number of days homes were listed under the listing agreement that was in effect at time of sale.  If a home were previously listed, but off the market for 30+ days, the prior marketing period would not be included in this number.  If you are thinking of selling your home, it is important to be realistic.  Home prices have come down and buyers are well educated when it comes to home values.  Pricing your home competitively  is crucial in this market if you wish to sell a home.

Do you know someone who's falling behind on their mortgage payments?

Many people assumed large mortgages during the real estate boom of the last decade.  When job losses or unplanned expenses occurred, they were unable to keep up with their mortgage payments.

When the mortgage amount exceeds the net proceeds that would result from selling a property, some homeowners can not afford to sell and pay off their mortgage debt. Homeowners who find themselves in this predicament should investigate whether a “short sale” would make sense for them.

 A “short sale” is the term used when a lender agrees to accept less than the full amount owed on a mortgage to satisfy the debt, and the lender writes off the excess.  This process is frequently better for the lender than foreclosure because it can be less expensive.  It can be beneficial to the homeowners because their credit rating may be less affected than it would be if they were subject to a foreclosure.

Each short sale is different and the process can be frustrating.  An agent experienced in short sales can make or break a successful transaction. Until recently, short sales were uncommon in our area, so few local real estate firms have had a lot of experience in this specialty.  Coldwell Banker Hearthside is an exception.  We have a short sale specialist who has completed over 2000 short sales during the past 30 years, and another specialist who has completed 400.

In addition to the assistance of an experienced agent, such as our specialists, we always advise a client to seek professional advice from both a financial expert and an attorney before and during the short sale process. 

We can arrange a confidential conversation with one of our specialists who can provide objective information on how the process works and whether it makes sense in a particular situation.

Upper Makefield (Bucks County) Home Sale Statistics through 10/31/2011

The homes in Upper Makefield Township  greatly differ  in size, amenities and price.  There are many homes in the $1 million to $5 million price range, many in the $400,000- $600,000 range and some small cottages priced between $250,000 and $400,000.  It is a relatively rural community with a low population; so, there are not as many sales as in neighboring townships.  Therefore, sales statistics can be skewed a few high priced homes selling within a  time period.  Although the figures from one year to the next may not necessarily represent a clear trend, it is obvious that selling homes in the luxury price range of over $1million is challenging.  Buyers in this price range have the opportunity to purchase a luxury home for prices significantly less than they would cost to build.

UPPER MAKEFIELD TOWNSHIP

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Market Facts as of OCTOBER 31 Year to Date 2011

Source: COLDWELL BANKER HEARTHSIDE REALTORS MARKET RESEARCH from TREND MLS Data

        Inventory of homes for sale in Oct 2011 was 126

Inventory of homes for sale in Sep 2011 was 133

Inventory of homes for sale in Oct 2010 was 150

Inventory is down 16% year over year,

And down 7 homes (5%) sequentially from Sep 2011

        Avg. price of a home for sale in Oct 2011 - $1.17 million

Avg. price of a home for sale in Oct 2010 - $1.16 million

List prices in inventory are up ~1%, the avg. price stat is driven by # of homes priced in $1-3+ million, ~$402k difference between Avg. Sold versus Avg. Inventory Price; review specific property Comparative Market Analyses for pricing direction & check Median/Average Prices

        76 homes sold as of Oct YTD 2011 at 87% of list price

        84 homes sold as of Oct YTD 2010 at 90% of list price

Unit Sales volume is down 9.5% year over year, contrasted with Full Year 2010 Unit Sales which were up 27.4%

Buyers achieving approx 13% discount from Original List Price

Summary:  Inventory levels are down as are YTD Unit Sales.  Notably, at current Sales pace there is a 17.8 Month Supply of Homes in Inventory, at all price levels.  Buyers are still achieving “discount” leverage in negotiation – at an increasing spread versus last year.  Market is viewed as a clear “Buyers Market”.  Note that a Market is viewed as “Balanced” with 6 Months of Inventory.

What does this mean to a seller?

There is a substantial inventory of homes on the market (particularly in $1-3 million range), generally for longer periods of time, so the competition is challenging.  Average Days on Market is 165 (all price levels).   During 2010, most (75%) of the homes sold closed at prices under $999k.  Currently, ~40% of the homes (50 of 126) on the market are priced above $1 million, and this represents a 33.3 Month Supply at current sales pace (~1.5 per month).  It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively.  You may not have enjoyed the positive per year appreciation in recent years versus what was experienced during years 2000 - 2006. Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.

Bucks County-A Beautiful Place to Live

Today's a crisp fall day and I drove to work along the Delaware River.  I couldn't help marvelling at the view. The surroundings included the river, rolling hills, colorful fall foliage and historic homes.  I love the river towns of Yardley, Washington Crossing, New Hope and Carversville as well as the historic boroughs of Newtown and Doylestown. I feel lucky to live in such a beautiful area that is convenient to Philadelphia, New York and Princeton.

The Smart Money is Buying Homes

I recently read an article written by the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
He stated that 22% of homes sold in August were purchased by investors.  With rental prices continuing to rise and prices at affordable levels, the smart money sees value in real estate.

Some potential homeowners are sitting on the sidelines waiting for home prices to bottom out.  Unfortunately, no one can predict the market.  We won't know when prices have bottomed out  until prices start rising again, and by then interest rates may be higher.

Investors are concluding that real estate at today's prices will provide a good return on their investment. The fact that prices may go a little lower is not deterring them from buying. If investors are right, it may be a good time for potential homeowners who plan to stay put for several years to buy a home.

Good Home Buys for Buyers with Vision Willing To Do Some Work

Today's home buyers are busy people and usually want to buy newer homes or those that have been updated.  Others do not have the vision or experience to see a homes potential if some cosmetic changes were made.  While this is understandable, buyers pay a premium when they buy updated properties. 

If a home is in a good location, has been well maintained,  has a floor plan that would be comfortable for you and your family, and meets your general criteria, try not to let first impressions cause you to dismiss it too quickly.  Look at the space.  Are you reacting negatively to wallpaper, paint colors or unattractive furnishings?  Is the kitchen floor plan satisfactory so that cabinet refacing and new counter tops would give it the look you are would like?  Paint, tile and new carpeting are relatively inexpensive.  Cabinet refacing and granite counter tops are more costly, but may be bargains compared to the increased cost of a home in which these changes have already been made.  Unlike a total kitchen makeover in which the floor plan and pluming are changed, cabinet refacing and counter top replacement will not disrupt you lifestyle for an extended period of time.

Homes with dated interiors frequently stay on the market longer and have price reductions before they sell.  If you can see potential and are willing to do some updating  yourself, these homes may be the best buyers on the market.

Newtown Township Home Sale Statistics 1/1/2011-9/30/2011

  

NEWTOWN TOWNSHIP

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Market Facts1/1/2011-9/30/2011

______________

Source: COLDWELL BANKER HEARTHSIDE REALTORS MARKET RESEARCH from TREND MLS Data

·          There were 151 single family homes for sale in September 2011.

·          There were 130 single family homes for sale in September 2010.

       Inventory is up 16.2% year over year,

·          Average price of single family homes for sale in September 2011 was $410k

·          Average price of  single family homes for sale in September 2010 was $465k

This increase is due to relatively high priced new construction homes being sold within the township.

·          131 homes sold during the first nine months of 2011 at 93% of list price      

·          167 homes sold during the first nine months of 2010 at 95% of list price

Unit Sales volume is down 21.6% year over year.

Actual Selling Prices are averaging about a 7% below the Original List Price

Summary:  Inventory levels are up and year to date unit sales are down compared to the same period last year.  The market is in “Buyers Market” territory with a 10.9 Month Supply of Homes in Inventory. 

Note that a Market is viewed as “Balanced” with a 6 Months Inventory of homes for sale.  

What does this mean to a Seller? 

There is almost an 11 Month Supply of homes on the market, and generally taking about 70 Days on Market to sell, vs. 51 Days on Market last year, so selling conditions are relatively challenging.  It is more important now than ever to price your home right and market aggressively. You may not have enjoyed the per year appreciation in 2007-2010 versus the ~10% experienced during most of the prior 3-4 years.  Be realistic and remember the current market is what determines the price of your home.

Selling Home in a Tough Market

A friend of mine is selling her mother's home in North Jersey.  The home is out of my sales area, but  she asked for my advise on how to sell a condominium in a community in which there are many similar properties for sale.

My advise to her was that the home must look better than the others on the market and be priced a little lower than the competition.  If that is the case, as long as her agent markets the property correctly, it should sell.

 Desirable homes are selling if priced correctly, but sellers are frequently reluctant to price the home at a competitive level.  In a declining market, looking at the prices at which homes sold for few months ago is not enough. The seller should ask to see comparables of similar homes on the market.  If there are ten similar homes on the market and only two or three can be expected to sell within the next couple of months,  the homeowner should price his home at the low end of the competition. Buyers put a high value on updated kitchens and baths, so if a property has not been updated, the seller should price his property below others that have been.

How the home is presented can make a difference. Many buyers react emotionally to the ambiance of a property. They have a hard time visualizing what a property would look like if changes were made or what their furnishings would look like in the home.  Decluttering and neutralizing a property can make a difference.  Most Realtors can make suggestions on cost effective ways to improve the appeal of a property.

 My friend's mother's home is likely to be decorated in a manner attractive to older people.  The  buyer is likely to be a younger person or couple with "Pottery Barn" taste.  Simplifying the decor and adding a few trendy accessories can make a difference.

Some agents are skilled in staging and others work with professional stagers to make a home that is for sale attractive to the likely buyer.  When choosing a realtor, ask what they will do to help you present your property in a way that will make it most attractive to buyers.

Bucks County Home Prices

The following chart shows annual market appreciation for several communities over the past ten years. It's too early to predict 2011 results, but so far it appears the prices of homes in Bucks County will decrease by about 5% in 2011.

Per Year Appreciation SF Homes (ex Condos) Higher Volume Markets
Source: COLDWELL BANKER HEARTHSIDE REALTORS MARKET RESEARCH from MLS data
	L. Makefield Twp		Newtown Twp		Northampton Twp		Buckingham Twp
	Apprec	Units	Apprec	Units	Apprec	Units	Apprec	Units
2010 Avg$	$427		$378		$403		$577
2010	-7.6%	305	-2.1%	202	3.5%	300	15.1%	214
2009	-6.7%	255	-3.7%	224	-9.9%	287	-16.1%	174
2008	3.1%	251	-2.4%	231	-2.3%	278	-2.9%	204
2007	-6.4%	379	-0.1%	260	-3.3%	351	1.7%	252
2006	3.6%	355	10.9%	299	8.2%	376	5.2%	257
2005	11.6%	432	6.9%	354	8.9%	437	10.4%	329
2004	10.4%	465	12.0%	360	10.7%	457	10.6%	288
2003	11.7%	465	11.9%	344	5.5%	410	5.4%	279
2002	9.8%	427	14.5%	285	14.6%	398	15.2%	259
2001	13.5%	453	5.7%	321	15.3%	409	17.9%	239
2000 Avg$	$288	445	$229	307	$249	377	$329	279
	Doylestown Twp		Falls Twp		Middletown	Twp	Bristol Twp
	Apprec	Units	Apprec	Units	Apprec	Units	Apprec	Units
2010 Avg$	$412		$236		$300		$174
2010	-0.2%	133	2.0%	201	4.4%	309	-2.4%	391
2009	-8.2%	136	-5.9%	216	-5.3%	322	-7.6%	501
2008	-0.2%	114	-6.4%	202	-7.9%	309	-8.4%	490
2007	-5.9%	168	2.5%	284	0.4%	347	-0.1%	561
2006	1.8%	178	1.4%	282	7.5%	407	5.9%	593
2005	14.9%	189	13.6%	280	10.0%	427	15.9%	738
2004	10.2%	198	20.8%	304	11.8%	467	11.3%	711
2003	5.8%	184	12.5%	269	11.7%	406	18.1%	629
2002	21.2%	182	13.3%	279	11.9%	397	13.9%	589
2001	9.1%	164	7.3%	237	12.5%	366	5.8%	601
2000 Avg$	$266	175	$135	266	$176	369	$109	539
	Bucks County				Bensalem	Twp	Morrisville Boro
	Apprec	Units			Apprec	Units	Apprec	Units
2010 Avg$	$343				$252		$178
2010	4.3%	4558			-1.7%	312	-4.1%	54
2009	-6.8%	4829			-5.7%	319	-10.9%	100
2008	-6.7%	4806			-2.1%	363	-8.1%	74
2007	0.6%	6048			-2.9%	398	1.4%	103
2006	4.1%	6408			9.5%	433	0.7%	133
2005	11.6%	7454			15.9%	506	18.6%	144
2004	13.1%	7470			11.8%	459	19.1%	159
2003	10.0%	6893			12.4%	446	9.7%	144
2002	15.6%	6429			17.9%	431	12.8%	116
2001	7.5%	6364			15.8%	446	4.9%	138
2000 Avg$	$209	6275			$132	488	$121	123
Appreciation measured by Change in Sold Average Price year over year
MLS Stats are not held beyond 2000 base year
2000 Avg$ displays Base Year Average Price for the Indicated Market
2010 Avg$ displays Average Price for the Indicated Market